mlb standings predictions 2022
The Rockieswere surprisingly the top suitor for Kris Bryant, signing him to a seven-year, $182 million contract Has a team ever lost 110 games as quietly as the Diamondbacks last year? Bringing in Avisail Garcia and Jorge Soler adds some thump to the outfield in an outfield that has been inconsistent in recent years. To join our email list and get notified when we launch the 2023 MLB section, register for a free account . 11m ago. It's a good, though not great, mix of position players. Support FanGraphs. March 1st, 2023. Design and development by Jay Boice. The two big prospects in the Trea Turner/Scherzer trade, Josiah Gray will slot into the rotation and Keibert Ruiz should become the everyday catcher. Tip from Dean E. Smith Center is at 6:30 p.m. How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. Justin Verlander's return is hugefor the Astros, coming off their third World Series appearance in five years. Sticky standings Sticky standings. Adam Wainwright was ridiculous down the stretch last season and it's hard to bet against him, but he's also 40 years old. There are six divisions in the MLB, divided into three . NL Playoffs: Wild-Card Series A: Mets over Brewers Major League Baseball's arduous 2021-22 offseason featured a 99-day lockout that ultimately resulted in an abbreviated spring training and a delayed Opening . With Seattle, Los Angeles, and Texas each loading up on talent this offseason, will the Carlos Correa-less Astros . 3. 1. 8,128 plate appearances. The 2022 Major League Baseball season is nearly upon us. It's hard to see that changing in 2022 with a new crop of players in the AL Central. Nick Madrigal and Nico Hoerner are a promising young middle-infield combo, who should be big parts of the team's future. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Nov. 4, 2022. I'm going to, once again, hammer the over on the highest total. Mega Picker; . To join our email list and get notified when we launch the 2023 MLB section. The top of the MLB power rankings remains steady and it's likely to stay that way. Theyll be better than the Pittsburgh Pirates, but at least we can say we like the outlook for Pittsburghs future. As part of our year-round MLB coverage, we'll provide analysis, the latest news and MLB trade rumors . Were using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. The Rangerswere the talk of the offseason before the lockout when they made two major splashy signings in bringing in Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to produce maybe the best middle-infield combination in baseball. The Blue Jays were widely considered to be one of the AL favorites to reach the World Series entering 2022, but they ended up finishing seven games behind the Yankees in the AL East and were swept by the Mariners in the AL Wild Card Series. Major League Leaders . LAA Los Angeles Angels. MLB 2022 win totals: Predicting every team's record for the new season. Those player stats are then merged in with their current teams to evaluate how good each team's lineups, rotation and bullpens will be in the 2022 season. But how does the model see it shaking out? PECOTA views the Bronx Bombers as heavy favorites in the AL East, with Toronto projected for roughly nine fewer wins. There was a point in the 2021 season when it felt the Mets were going to run away with the division. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. The St. Louis Cardinals strengthened their rotation depth this offseason, signing Steven Matz. Case in point, Jon Lester had a 4.36 ERA compared to a 5.40 FIP in 12 starts last season after they acquired him and he's now retired. If Jack Flaherty is unavailable for a majority of the season, though, that significantly changes the Cardinals outcome. Team: Wins: Losses: Chicago White Sox: 85: 77: 5 min read. It has been a discouraging offseason forAthletics'fans, who watched their two core Matts traded off to the Blue Jays (Chapman) and Braves (Olson), and standout arms Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt traded to the Padres and Mets, respectively. As for Colorado, signing Kris Bryant feels like a move for ticket sales as this is still one of the worst teams in MLB. Signing Seiya Suzuki, one of Japan's biggest sluggers over the past six seasons, is a big addition as he'll likely slot right into the middle of the lineup. The Phillies enter the season probably, objectively, a worse team than both the Braves and Mets in the NL East. Joey Votto continues to produce at a star talent, but heading into his age 38 campaign, the model expects some regression to take a toll. Whenthe Padresmade the playoffs in the abbreviated 2020 season, many expected they'd take that next step in 2021 and be a true World Series contender. And while the Rays have been able to work around stuff like this the last several years, I don't believe they have the same combination of depth and talent in the bullpen to absorb the starter workload shortfall. It's Cleveland vs. Minnesota for the AL Central title. Opening Day is set for Thursday (for 14 teams, at least), and thankfully for baseball fans, we'll still have a full, 162-game season in 2022. As of now, this is the best team in the AL East. Four teams won at least 100 in 2019. The front end of the rotation offers some star arms in Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Sale and Tanner Houck, who can match up with many of the best in the AL. I like the Dodgers to keep MLB's 100 . If Alex Bregman bounces back to what he's capable of, this should remain one of the highest-scoring offenses. Welcome to our NHL projections and probabilities page where you will find each team's projected . Factoring in that advantage along with an electrifying Cardinals bullpen, elite defense and a sufficient lineup, we expect St. Louis in a Wild Card Game. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted As for the Cubs, neither system likes their postseason chances despite the signings of Swanson, Cody Bellinger, Jameson Taillon, Trey Mancini and Eric Hosmer. Detroit is also expecting rookies Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene to make the jump to the majors and provide the offense with the jolt it lacked in 2021. Despite believing that the Astros are more likely to win the pennant, it sees the Rays as a slightly more likely team to win the World Series. The 2020 World Series champions have +600 odds to lift the Commissioner's Trophy in 2022, while the Pirates, Orioles and Arizona Diamondbacks are tied for the lowest at +25000. Was Steven Matz's 2021 season a real change or is he more the guy who was well below average from 2017-20? The NL West was incredibly loaded in 2021, with the Giants finishing with the best record in baseball and the Dodgers owning the second-best record in baseball. Just looking around the NL West, there are two bad teams. 2023 Playoff Odds, . The speedy outfield of Tyler O'Neill, Harrison Bader and Dylan Carlson returns as the best defensive unit in baseball, and they're each expected to improve offensively. It isn't that simple, even if it sounds like it should be. Wed also feel comfortable projecting a Willson Contreras trade in our MLB predictions, coming in July. If the snake-bitten franchise gets full seasons from Anthony Rendon, Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Noah Syndergaard, its a no-doubt playoff team. Milwaukee had a relatively quiet offseason after finishing seven games behind St. Louis last season, but PECOTA projects the teams vaunted pitching staff to allow 41 fewer runs than that of St. Louis. Toronto Blue Jays. The rotation lost Robbie Ray but added Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi. 2022-23 English Premier League Arsenal vs. Bournemouth odds, picks: Predictions and best bets for Saturday's match from proven soccer expert . With just days to go until Opening Day, hope is high among all teams that this will be their year to win a World Series or at least have an enjoyable 162-game season. The Line: Man City -240 / Newcastle United +550 // Total: 2.5. 3 (Freddy Peralta) and a potential Rookie of the year candidate (Aaron Ashby). The bottom line is the recent history of teams that ducked and dodged their way past unseemly run differentials to post winning records isn't rosy in the ensuing season. Jesse Yomtov. A complete list of this year's voters: . Are the Braves even with the Mets, or way behind? Wander Franco, Shane Baz and Shane McClanahan are expected to take up major roles on the team in their second seasons with the club, and Randy Arozarena and Brandon Lowe will again be dangerous at the plate. I'm not a Phillies fan. The predicted standings for each team are the average wins and losses in the 20,000 simulations. The 2022 Major League Baseball season is nearly upon us. The Tigers also signed a pair of top free agents in Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez to provide some more established threats to the team. After reaching the playoffs in 2020 and winning the AL Central with a 93-69 record the following year, the White Sox seemed poised to establish themselves as the divisions alpha dog in 2022. Matt Chapman is one of the best defensive players in the game and his bat should look better with the talent around it. Coming off an 81-81 campaign, San Francisco had an offseason that can best be described as OK. The Giants had grand designs to add a superstar, but they came up short in the Judge sweepstakes and walked away from a deal with Carlos Correa, reportedly due to concerns about his physical. There is potential in this team to over-perform its projections. The increase in the number of teams losing on purpose has left a lot more wins for the good teams to grab. They didn't re-sign Miley and traded away franchise icons Winker and Suarez in a salary dump before signing Tommy Pham, Donovan Solano, Colin Moran and trading for Mike Minor. The Rockies don't figure to be in the mix for the playoffs in 2022, but that lineup could be fun to watch. ZiPS projects both the Mariners and Angels for 85 wins, putting the two clubs in a tie for the third AL Wild Card spot behind the Blue Jays and Rays. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Ronald Acuna Jr. will be back before too long and joins a lineup that still features Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson and Eddie Rosario. I took the Rays' under (it was 86) last year and got badly burned. Both of these teams will be in the playoffs, everyones preference between the two is understandable. The Jays were 91-71 last season and I believe they are better. PECOTA, however, sees a sizable gap of roughly five games between them, with the Mets on top. Max Scherzer and Justin . They also signed Jon Gray, who could be due for a breakout season now that he's no longer pitching in Coors Field. The lineup dips after Jose Ramirez, and even with the powerful bat of Franmil Reyes, Cleveland lacks true support for its star third baseman. Most of all, the Rockies will continue to flex their muscles in Coors Field, where they were 48-33 last season. Here are the way too early MLB 2022 standings predictions for the American League. The rotation remains the bright spot with Shane Bieber leading a staff that featured a breakout season from Cal Quantrill and solid campaigns from Triston McKenzie, Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale. Arizona is avoiding a total rebuild and the Ketel Marte extensions signals he wont be moved. Kyle Tucker will now be seen as one of the offensive leaders, along with slugger Yordan Alvarez. The retirement of Buster Posey will usher in the Joey Bart era behind the plate. Starting with the winners, there won't be many who will dispute that the White Sox should be the favorite to win the division. Let's start things off with a prediction about one of my favorite players to target in fantasy baseball drafts. The one thing missing is another quality outfielder to fill out the lineup. The Rays have won the division two years in a rowbut didn't do much to upgrade,and have a lot riding on Wander Franco (and his new 11-year, $182 million contract)taking a significant step forward Yankees fans may have hated the offseason, but the team didn't get significantly worse over the winter. And I'd win the under. 5 starter. That is, we'll list the win total for the 2022 season from Caesars Sportsbook and pick whether the team will win more (the "over") or fewer (the "under") games. They have the best hitter of this generation in Mike Trout and the most talented player of all time in Shohei Ohtani, yet they continue to finish below .500. While Cleveland missed the playoffs last year, they also have finished no lower than third in the AL Central since 2012. Pittsburgh is waiting for the Mitch Keller breakout to happen this spring, he's shown glimpses that it could be on the way as the rotation starts to weave in younger arms like Bryse Wilson and Roansy Contreras. So does former wunderkind Alex Reyes. Everyone wants to see his light-tower power in the thin air of Coors Field, just as CJ Cron in his first year in Colorado. 2 spot. Not many expected the Braves to win their fourth World Series title at the beginning of the 2021 season. By no means do I think the Rockies are good, nor will they come close to playoff contention. Statistical data provided by Gracenote. The Los Angeles Dodgers might have lost the NL West in 2021, but theres no doubt this is the best team in the division entering the 2022 season. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Robert Edwards-USA TODAY Sports. With the exception of a 107-win season from the Giants in 2021, the Dodgers have owned the NL West for the past decade. Here are 10 predictions that go against general public sentiment, but I still think have a decent shot at happening. Landing Carlos Correa is a monumental upgrade at shortstop, improving this teams fielding and run production. The Tigersare in a position where it feels like they are on the verge of putting it all together at the big-league level. The GB column is an abbreviation for Games Back and it shows how far teams are behind the leader of the division or put simply, first place. If it's the 2022-23 Premier League table you're after, you've come to the right place. Bo Bichette is talented enough to take another step forward and join Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. as an MVP contender. This team is largely the same one that went on a 17-game winning streak at the end of the season to blaze past the Reds, Phillies and Padres to capture the second wild-card and sneak into the playoffs. Arizona also has to be relieved the DH is now in the league so it can give young slugger Seth Beer a way to consistently fit in the lineup. ZiPS has it as a much closer race, projecting the Yankees for 89 wins and the Blue Jays for 88. It bucks conventional wisdom, sure, but there are a few factors I can't ignore. Many thought they'd be that bad last year and they won 74 games. Tyler Stephenson finishes with 20+ home runs, 80+ runs, and 80+ RBIs. Now, the Red Sox also have Trevor Story, who should certainly enjoy teeing off the Green Monster. Download data. I do think this team is better and on the right track, but I don't think they'll have the kind of "luck" they did last season, say, in one-run games. The Braves, on the other hand, werent a major player in free agency. Carlos Rodon is gone, but Michael Kopech is waiting in the wings to take over as the No. The bullpen lost Jansen, but added Craig Kimbrel to go along with Blake Treinen and Brusdar Graterol. AL EAST. Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off Dropping $500 million on a new middle infield (Corey Seager and Marcus Semien)got plenty of attention for the Rangers An ongoing clearance sale has the Athletics expected to finish last,but Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas give Oakland a little bit of upward mobility if they don't get shipped off, too. For anyone followingthe Reds, this has been a puzzling offseason. See how your team stacks up against the rest of Major League Baseball with league, division, and playoff standings. Major League Baseball's arduous 2021-22offseason featured a 99-day lockout that ultimately resulted in an abbreviated spring training and a delayed Opening Day. For now, well keep the Yankees in the No. You famously cannot predict baseball. 2023 projected standings for major league baseball teams. Pair that with a strong bullpen and a productive lineup. and that rotation is littered with question marks after Joe Musgrove. But this will be a season for fans to count on young talent gaining experience to help the next reloaded Oakland team. Projection rollouts have become a time-honored tradition in the lead up to every baseball season, and FanGraphs writer Dan Szymborskis ZiPS and Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA are two of the most trusted projection systems around. MLB games today will offer daily predictions and the full schedule for the entire season from 2022 Opening Day to the World Series. . Carter Kieboom has been hyped for some time, and will finally be given a full opportunity once he returns from his forearm injury. The key tothe Giants'success in 2021 was a standout rotation. Ultimately, this is a total rebuild and the organization isnt thinking about the final MLB standings in 2022. It will all come down to how many IL stints the Angels stars have in 2022. From the starting rotation to the lineup, Los Angeles holds the advantages and its farm system is better. Pair that with the injury concerns we have for multiple starters, its enough to put this team a tier behind the Blue Jays. After winning 99 games in 2022, the Yankees were able to re-sign Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo in free agency, and they inked All-Star lefty Carlos Rodnto a six-year contract. It also highlights the risk of a starting rotation with so many durability worries. Behind the Jays, it could go either way between the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays. Like the Tigers,the Royals are loaded with MLB-ready talent from Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto all expected to reach the big leagues at some point during the season to add to an offense that already includes Salvador Perez, Nicky Lopez and Whit Merrifield. Hes going to be one of the best players in MLB before long and some even think hell get MVP votes in 2022. But in this new season, expectations are once again high for them. The NL Central hasnt had a repeat champion since the Cubs in 2016-17, and PECOTA expects that trend to continue in 2023, giving the Brewers a two-game edge over the Cardinals. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Follow the American League and National League races here from USA TODAY. There wasn't a better trio of starting pitchers in baseball last year than those onthe Brewers. Now that ZiPS and PECOTA have both released their projected standings for 2023 (ZiPS can be found here and here, and PECOTA here), here's a breakdown of some interesting points on which they agree, and where they differ. Wed be even higher on this team because of its exciting rotation, if not for the fact Phillys defense is the worst in baseball. MLB predictions 2022: Final standings, playoff projections, World Series odds for every team, Trading for Matt Chapman a better fit for rising Blue Jays than signing Freddie Freeman, Reds, As top list of five MLB fan bases experiencing post-lockout blues, Dodgers, Mets earn high marks; Yankees confuse, Seiya Suzuki has won over Cubs' clubhouse; next impression will come with bat, Cody Bellinger is struggling again, but Dodgers are so good that it might not matter. Cactus League. 2. All rights reserved. "Ok . With that said, adding Chris Archer is a nice low-risk, high-reward move that should add more stability to Minnesotas pitching staff. 400. Some major changes await the 2022 MLB season. Three got there in both 2018 and 2017. Texans spent heavily on Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, adding two All-Star hitters to the lineup. Three key contributors in the lineup Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Mike Yastrzemski are 30 or older, and while they aren't getting younger, their bats certainly did not appear any slower in 2021. Bookmark this page for in-season updates to our MLB predictions. The slugging corner infielders of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado make up a powerful middle-of-the-order tandem, and Tommy Edman should help at the top of the lineup. After adding closer Craig Kimbrel, the gap between Los Angeles and its NL West foes is even wider. For now, with everyone healthy, this looks like a Wild Card team that doesnt reach the ALDS. The Mariners may have somethingto say about that, though, making some big moves in hopes of ending baseball's longest postseason drought dating back to 2001. The team has pieces that will help it win games, with Frankie Montas at the front of that rotation and top prospect Cristian Pache immediately slotting into the outfield with Ramon Laureano. Can the Los Angeles Angels avoid bad fortune? The Yankees, Red Sox and Rays are all strong playoff contenders, for me. Maybe it's a case where I just didn't learn my lesson. One of the more remarkable tidbits about last season was the Dodgers' total being 103.5, them hitting the over with room to spare and still not winning the NL West. Related: Get Paramount Plus today and watch live sports for an unbeatable price! The Orioleshope to see top prospect Adley Rutschman soon (but not too soon) and are going to lose 100 games again but have players worth watching inCedric Mullins andRyan Mountcastle. If the 2021 Mariners were a 76-win true talent team and their true talent this season is, say, eight games better, they'd go 84-78, right? The results, Marcus Stroman being replaced by Max Scherzer and holes in the lineup being filled by Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar. The Raysare that team that is constantly underloved by metrics and subsequently overperforms. A starting rotation with two Cy Young candidates (Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff), an All-Star No. Something is going to give there -- in terms of sending one team down to the mid-80s in wins, this time around -- and the Red Sox total is 85.5. PECOTA projects both the Twins and Guardians for 88 wins, with the White Sox at 78. If there werent enough concerns, early IL stints for Evan Longoria and Lamonte Wade Jr. heighten worries with the Giants lineup and its diminishing depthj. Corey Kluber is 36. Sure, Opening Day was pushed back a week, but the MLB season is set to play a full 162 games, which was not a given earlier this winter. Putting the Houston Astros atop the AL West in our MLB predictions today was easy. From there, the model simulates the postseason based on the outcomes of the regular season to decide who will win the World Series. Today's MLB slate is very busy, and the first game is at 3:10 pm ET.
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